In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, but it has been rather calm so far. However, experts warn that this quiet period may not last long, and people should remain prepared.
To date, there have been four named storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. Most of these storms have been short-lived tropical storms, with Dexter currently active in the North Atlantic. The occurrence of four named storms is slightly above the average of 3.2 for this time of the year.
Despite the seemingly quiet season, experts like Jennifer Collins, a geosciences professor at the University of South Florida, suggest that the perception of calmness may be due to the early start of previous active hurricane seasons. Additionally, the presence of short-lived storms contributes to the feeling of inactivity.
Tropical storm Barry, although brief, had a significant impact on Texas, leading to widespread flooding and tragically resulting in at least 135 fatalities. While the Atlantic has been relatively calm, the Pacific Ocean has seen heightened activity, with eight named storms, including four hurricanes.
Chris Fogarty, the manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre, emphasized that the number of storms alone does not accurately represent the season’s activity. He explained that weak storms do not contribute significantly to the overall activity levels.
Looking ahead, there is a possibility of increased hurricane activity as the season progresses, with tropical storm Dexter off the coast of Nova Scotia and potential developments in other areas. The necessary ingredients for hurricane formation, such as moist air, warm water, and favorable upper-level winds, have not all aligned yet.
The NOAA’s initial forecast predicted between 13 to 19 named storms this season, with a portion of them likely intensifying into hurricanes. With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaching in August and September, experts urge vigilance and preparedness, emphasizing the potential for rapid intensification of storms and inland flooding risks.