A recent poll indicates that Andrew Knack is leading the race to become Edmonton’s next mayor among decided and leaning voters. However, nearly half of the surveyed voters remain undecided. The exclusive CBC News survey, conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research, shows that Knack and Tim Cartmell are the top contenders in terms of name recognition and voter preference.
In the poll, 41% of respondents who had made up their minds or were leaning towards a candidate expressed support for Knack, while 21% favored Cartmell. Despite this, 46% of those surveyed stated they were still unsure about their choice. The survey, which involved 1,000 Edmonton residents through the Trend Research Online Panel, took place from October 1 to 8.
Pollster Janet Brown noted that the high number of undecided voters so close to the election, particularly in a race without an incumbent, is uncommon. She suggested that the considerable undecided segment may reflect a lack of enthusiasm among the electorate due to the overwhelming political landscape, including issues such as Canada-U.S. relations and the Alberta teachers’ strike.
Political analyst Najib Jutt mentioned that many undecided voters might opt not to vote, attributing this trend to a perceived dearth of fresh political faces among the candidates. The pool of candidates comprises familiar names like Knack and Cartmell, both current city councillors, along with Michael Walters, Tony Caterina, and Rahim Jaffer, who have a history in municipal or federal politics.
Brendan Boyd, an associate professor of political science at MacEwan University, highlighted that previous public opinion research indicated a desire among Edmontonians for new faces in the political arena. He speculated that the undecided voters might be seeking change but are uncertain about where to find it.
The widespread indecision among voters suggests a significant level of unpredictability in the upcoming election results, according to Boyd. While Knack and Cartmell enjoy stronger support based on Brown’s polling data, the remaining candidates trail behind with varying levels of voter backing.
Jutt noted that Knack’s campaign strategy has resonated with progressive voters, positioning him as the primary progressive choice in the race. Boyd observed that Knack’s emphasis on addressing issues like homelessness and housing affordability during debates has distinguished him, although he refrained from suggesting direct vote-splitting in the competition.
With the election just days away and advance voting already underway, Jutt emphasized the pivotal role of voter turnout in determining the winner. Boyd concurred, pointing out that in municipal elections with a smaller voter base, grassroots efforts like door-to-door campaigning can significantly influence the outcome.
As the election day draws near, both analysts anticipate further shifts in voter preferences and emphasize the importance of mobilizing supporters to secure victory in a closely contested race.