Excerpt from The Buzzer, CBC Sports’ daily email newsletter. Stay updated on sports news by subscribing here.
This weekend marks the beginning of the Canadian curling trials, a major event leading up to the Winter Olympics, taking place in Halifax.
The top eight men’s and women’s teams in Canada will vie for the opportunity to represent the country in the four-player curling events in northern Italy this February. Jocelyn Peterman and Brett Gallant secured Canada’s spot in the mixed doubles event after winning the trials last season and finishing sixth at the world championships.
The men’s and women’s trials kick off on Saturday in the same arena, featuring a round-robin format where teams play each other once. The team with the best record advances directly to the final, while the second- and third-place teams compete in a semifinal next Thursday to determine the finalist against the top seed.
In a departure from past trials, the final will be a best-of-three series instead of a single game, with both finals scheduled for next Friday and Saturday, and potential rubber matches on Sunday.
The successful team will aim to restore Canada’s Olympic curling reputation, which has waned since the 2014 Games in Russia, where Brad Jacobs and Jennifer Jones claimed gold. Canada has only secured one medal in the four-player events since then – a bronze by Brad Gushue in 2022.
Canada’s performance in the mixed doubles discipline, a newer addition to the Olympic program, has been inconsistent. Despite winning gold in 2018, Canada missed the playoffs in 2022.
Shoreview Sports Analytics was consulted to predict the teams most likely to earn an Olympic berth based on statistical ratings using the Bradley-Terry model, emphasizing recent results.
Let’s delve into the outlook for both the women’s and men’s tournaments.
Women’s
Rachel Homan is the standout favorite in the women’s competition, having secured back-to-back world championships and maintaining an exceptional winning streak domestically.
With a 91% chance of triumphing in the trials, Homan is far ahead of other contenders, including Kerri Einarson and Kaitlyn Lawes.
The transition to a best-of-three final significantly reduces the likelihood of an upset, boosting Homan’s prospects even further.
Expectations are high for a showdown between Homan and Switzerland’s Silvana Tirinzoni at the Olympics, given their recent performances and rivalry.
Men’s
<p