Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the initial half of 2026, with overall trade climbing by 3.6% compared to the previous year, as per Statistics Canada data scrutinized by analysts. The latest figures, part of a recent report released by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, seem to mirror the rekindled engagement between the two nations, a move by Canada to broaden its economic horizons amidst strained relations with the U.S.
The total trade in goods between Canada and China reached $66.6 billion in the first half of 2026, marking a 3.6% rise, while exports specifically surged by 30% to $21.74 billion year on year. Energy and minerals were the main drivers, constituting 58.4% of all Canadian exports to China during this period, with energy, particularly crude oil and liquefied propane, registering an 81.8% growth. Additionally, exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, including copper ore, saw a 29% upswing.
“This marks a record high for our exports to China in the first half of the year,” noted Bijan Ahmadi, the executive director of the Canada China Business Council. The recent spike in trade is likely a result of various contributing factors, despite the long-standing trade ties between the two nations even amid geopolitical tensions in recent years.
The warming diplomatic and economic relations between Canada and China following years of strains, notably triggered by the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018, are becoming more evident. Meanwhile, as the trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. intensify, Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized Canada’s determination to forge new trade partnerships and reduce reliance on the U.S.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline’s near-full capacity in June has significantly boosted Asia’s access to Western Canadian crude oil. The disruption in oil shipments due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, affecting the vital Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil prices, prompting customers to turn to alternative producers like Canada. The unique buying power of China remains unmatched, with its significant role in global trade dynamics.
The first half of 2026 witnessed a notable shift in bilateral relations, with Carney striking a significant deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to facilitate the entry of tens of thousands of Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market in exchange for tariff concessions on Canadian agricultural products like canola. This agreement has already shown positive impacts on the pricing and demand for Canadian agricultural products.
Alberta and British Columbia have notably led the export gains, supported by the energy, minerals, forestry, and agriculture sectors. The decline in imports by 5.8% year on year, though China remains Canada’s second-largest import source, has reduced the trade deficit. This dip is partly attributed to the shift of certain manufacturing operations to countries like Vietnam.
Despite the overall trade growth, the report highlights that the improvement in agricultural performance has been modest, with only a 1.9% increase. While exports of canola seed, peas, and beef have seen positive trends, the lobster exports have declined by 28%, reflecting the diverse dynamics of the trade relationship.
Looking ahead, Canadian exporters aim to diversify their markets and strengthen trade ties with the Asia-Pacific region, recognizing the significant growth opportunities it presents. The full-year numbers will provide a comprehensive view, but based on the first-half performance, Canada appears to be on course to meet or even surpass its target of a 50% increase in exports to China by 2030.