The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further until 2027, possibly becoming the most intense on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather conditions into the following year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. The Secretary-General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo, mentioned during a news conference in Geneva that if the current trend persists, this El Niño event could surpass any observed since monitoring began, indicating an unprecedented situation.
The UN weather agency has stated that their projections indicate a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will extend until February 2027 due to abnormally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty is unprecedented, according to the WMO. A powerful El Niño can lead to significant alterations in global rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially fueling extreme weather phenomena like typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the magnitude of the current El Niño event, stating that it is evolving into an unprecedented size. The effects are clear, indicating uncharted territory with rising global temperatures. El Niño occurs cyclically every two to seven years, characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakened trade winds, lasting up to 12 months and causing intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted soft commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the peak of this El Niño event to occur later this year, with its repercussions extending into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures. In preparation for this, the WMO is enhancing its readiness and early warning mechanisms.
Saulo highlighted the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with various partners within the United Nations and the humanitarian sector to provide essential climate insights crucial for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.