U.S. President Donald Trump, praised for his involvement in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages, is now focusing on another conflict he pledged to resolve upon returning to office: Russia’s war with Ukraine. Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where Trump expressed optimism about progress made. Zelenskyy is drawing parallels between Trump’s success in the Middle East and the potential for peace in Europe, emphasizing the importance of sustained peace efforts by the U.S. to end Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Despite Zelenskyy’s optimism and Trump’s commitment to mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine, experts caution that achieving peace in this conflict will be significantly more challenging compared to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations highlights the differences between the conflicts, noting the limited leverage the U.S. has over Russia compared to its influence on Israel.
Maria Snegovaya from the Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasizes the complexities of halting Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, suggesting that Trump may need to employ a combination of incentives and deterrents to bring about significant change. One such deterrent mentioned by Trump is the provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, a topic likely to be discussed during his meeting with Zelenskyy.
While the introduction of Tomahawk missiles could enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities, experts caution against seeing them as a definitive solution to compel Russia into a peace agreement. Snegovaya stresses that significant economic pressure on Russia is necessary to prompt meaningful concessions from Putin. Kupchan adds that while the missiles could impact Putin’s calculations, they alone will not be a game-changer in the conflict.
Trump remains confident in his ability to facilitate peace talks between Putin and Zelenskyy, despite the challenges posed by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. He plans to meet with Putin in Hungary soon, following their previous meeting in Alaska that did not yield progress towards ending the war. While the success in the Middle East may not directly translate to resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Trump remains optimistic about his mediation efforts.